April 2, 2013

Thinking-by-numbers rules the world


   I read the book called "Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart " by Ian Ayres. (その数学が戦略を決める イアン・エアーズ ) This book, written by the professor at Yale Law School and prominent econometrician, showcases many state-of-art statistical approaches for decision making used in this world. They range from prediction of president election to prediction of Bordeaux wine value. Now a days, there is no question around the importance of thinking-by-numbers as well as power of statistics, as the digitalization and data evolution expand rapidly.

   I want to highlight two interesting examples inspired by the book; how numbers-based-approach potentially influences our daily life.

[Predict how likely you will divorce]

   By answering only five simple questions, this calculator gives you a divorce prediction rate based on historical data given by real people and collected as part of the U.S. Census. Of course, the bottom of the result page kindly reminds you how to improve your relationship such as 5 tips for more sex etc.,

   For me, my five year divorce prediction rate was 7%, which is upper limit of average risk. Maybe I should look into one of those improvement suggestions :)

[Isabel  The diagnosis checklist]

   Isabel is the leading company to bring science to medical diagnosis. The program emulates real physician’s diagnosis, but using much more vast and recent information available in medical society. By entering age, gender, habitat region and symptoms in the website, just like usual face-to-face diagnosis with a doctor, it lists all potential diseases with information of “common” or “high risk with red flag” diseases including rare diseases. This computer-based-diagnosis checklist is obviously powerful to reduce miss-diagnosis, especially clinician’s overlooking high-risk rare diseases. Theoretically, it is possible to even predict which disease is more or less likely; however, this program is thoughtful enough to reveal minimum information as a support tool for physician’s decision final judgment, aiming at not violating physician’s professionalism, but increasing their acceptance for the program.

   On March 31st, professional Shogi, or Japanese chess, player lost against computer program in public for the first time became a news. This is certainly an accomplishment of thinking-by-numbers powered by sophisticated program. This book made me realize that the big wave has been already emerged and it will change the role of workers in near future, from decision making for problem solving to hypothesis formulation for answering right question.


 私はと呼ばれる本を読む "スーパーCrunchersを:なぜ思考·バイ·ナンバースマートにするための新しい方法です"イアン·エアーズでは。イェール大学ロースクールの教授で著名な計量経済学者によって書かれたこの本は、この世界で使用され、意思決定のための多くの最先端の統計的アプローチを紹介しています。彼らは大統領選挙の予測からボルドーワイン値の予測の範囲です。デジタル化とデータの進化が急速に拡大していく今日、思考·バイ·数字の重要性だけでなく、統計の電源周りには疑問がありません。






   イザベルは、医療診断に科学をもたらすリーディングカンパニーです。プログラムは、実際の医師の診断をエミュレートしますが、医療社会の中で利用可能な多くの広大で最新の情​​報を使用しています。ウェブサイトでは、年齢、性別、生息域や症状を入力することにより、単に医師といつものフェイス·トゥ·フェイスの診断のように、それは稀な疾患を含む疾患 "赤旗を持つ高リスク" "共通"の情報を持つすべての潜在的な病気を一覧表示。このコンピュータベースの自己診断チェックリストは診断ミスを減らすことが明らかに強力ですが、特に臨床医の見下ろす危険性の高い希少疾患。理論的には、それも多かれ少なかれそうである疾患を予測することが可能ですが、このプログラムは、医師のプロフェッショナリズムに違反していないを目指して、医師の決定最終的な判断のための支援ツールとして最低限の情報を明らかにするのに十分な思慮深いですが、彼らの受け入れを増やすプログラム。


日本語版「その数学が戦略を決める (文春文庫 イアン・エアーズ)